| 袁建辉,李梦军,付径维,陈建平,任清泉,肖纯凌.某地区PM2.5与居民呼吸系统疾病及恶性肿瘤死亡的时间序列研究[J].井冈山大学自然版,2022,43(5):86-92 |
| 某地区PM2.5与居民呼吸系统疾病及恶性肿瘤死亡的时间序列研究 |
| TIME SERIES OF PM2.5 AND DEATH OF RESIDENTS FROM RESPIRATARY DISEASE AND MALIGNANT TUMORS IN A CERTAIN AREA |
| 投稿时间：2021-10-20 修订日期：2022-04-17 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1674-8085.2022.05.013 |
| 中文关键词: 呼吸系统疾病 恶性肿瘤 PM2.5 时间序列 |
| 英文关键词: respiratory diseases malignant tumors PM2.5 time series |
| 基金项目:辽宁省科学技术厅计划项目(2017225076);沈阳市科技局"重大科技研发项目"(18-400409) |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 袁建辉 | 井冈山大学医学部, 江西, 吉安 343000 | | 李梦军 | 井冈山大学医学部, 江西, 吉安 343000 | | 付径维 | 井冈山大学教务处, 江西, 吉安 343000 | | 陈建平 | 沈阳市疾病预防与控制中心, 辽宁, 沈阳 110034 | | 任清泉 | 辽宁省环境污染与微生态重点实验室, 辽宁, 沈阳 110034 | | 肖纯凌 | 辽宁省环境污染与微生态重点实验室, 辽宁, 沈阳 110034 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 基于广义相加模型定量分析某地级市大气污染物PM2.5与居民呼吸系统疾病及恶性肿瘤死亡风险的相关性。方法 收集2016~2018年该地级市逐日PM2.5浓度数据、气象数据、居民呼吸系统疾病及恶性肿瘤死亡数据，进行描述性统计分析；采用基于Quasi-Poisson回归的广义相加模型（GAM），分析PM2.5与该市居民呼吸系统疾病和恶性肿瘤死亡风险间的相关关系。结果 2016~2018年该地级市大气PM2.5日均值为49 μg/m3，共有631 d超出《环境空气质量标准》GB3095-2012污染物浓度一级限值标准，占三年总天数的57.6%；广义相加模型滞后效应（Lag0~Lag7）显示，PM2.5浓度升高10 μg/m3，呼吸系统疾病死亡率在滞后5 d的影响最大(ER=0.699%（95%CI：0.121%~1.277%）)，恶性肿瘤死亡率在滞后3 d时的影响最大(ER=0.443%（95%CI：0.013%~0.873%）)；寒季（11月~4月）期间，PM2.5浓度升高10 μg/m3，呼吸系统疾病死亡率在滞后6 d的影响最大(ER=0.952%（95%CI：0.269%~1.635%）)，恶性肿瘤死亡率在滞后1 d时的影响最大(ER=0.819%（95%CI：0.177%~1.461%）)。结论 该地级市PM2.5浓度升高会引起呼吸系统疾病和恶性肿瘤死亡率增加，特别是在寒季，PM2.5暴露对呼吸系统疾病的负性效应更显著。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective: Based on the generalized additive model, to quantitatively analyze the correlation between the air pollutant PM2.5 in a prefecture-level city and the death risk of residents’ respiratory diseases and malignant tumors. Methods: The daily PM2.5 concentration data, meteorological data, residents’ respiratory diseases and malignant tumor death data in the prefecture-level city from 2016 to 2018 were collected, and descriptively statistical analyzed; by using the generalized additive model based on Quasi-Poisson regression (GAM), the correlation between PM2.5 and the risk of death from respiratory diseases and malignant tumors of residents in the city was analyzed. Results: From 2016 to 2018, the daily average value of atmospheric PM2.5 in this prefecture-level city was 49 μg/m3, which exceeded the first-level limit of pollutant concentration in “Ambient Air Quality Standard” GB3095-2012 for 631 days, accounting for 57.6% to the total number of days; the lag effect of the generalized additive model (Lag0~Lag7) showed that the concentration of PM2.5 increased by 10 μg/m3, and the mortality of respiratory diseases had the greatest impact after a lag of 5 days (ER=0.699% (95%CI: 0.121%) ~1.277%)), the mortality of malignant tumors had the greatest impact after a lag of 3 days (ER=0.443% (95%CI: 0.013%~0.873%)); during the cold season (November-April), PM2.5concentration increased by 10 μg/m3, the mortality of respiratory diseases had the greatest impact after a lag of 6 days (ER=0.952% (95%CI: 0.269%~1.635%)), and the mortality of malignant tumors had the greatest impact after a lag of 1 day (ER= 0.819% (95%CI: 0.177%~1.461%)). Conclusion: The increase of PM2.5 concentration in this prefecture-level city will increase the mortality of respiratory diseases and malignant tumors. Especially in the cold season, the negative effect of PM2.5 exposure on respiratory diseases is more significant. |
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