| 郭辉,陈强,朱春晖,朱庆雄.手足口病重症危险因素分析及其风险评价模型的构建[J].井冈山大学自然版,2018,(5):87-90 |
| 手足口病重症危险因素分析及其风险评价模型的构建 |
| ANALYSIS OF THE RISK FACTORS OF SEVERE HAND FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE AND CONSTRUCTION OF A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL |
| 投稿时间：2018-08-01 修订日期：2018-08-29 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1674-8085.2018.05.017 |
| 中文关键词: 手足口病 风险 评价 模型 |
| 英文关键词: hand foot and mouth disease risk evaluation model |
| 基金项目:江西省科技厅重大项目（20161ACG70017） |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 郭辉 | 南昌大学医学院, 江西, 南昌 330006
吉安市妇幼保健院, 江西, 吉安 34300 | | 陈强 | 江西省儿童医院, 江西, 南昌 330006 | | 朱春晖 | 江西省儿童医院, 江西, 南昌 330006 | | 朱庆雄 | 江西省儿童医院, 江西, 南昌 330006 |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1670 |
| 全文下载次数: 2019 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 对影响手足口病（危）重型转化率的危险因素进行分析并构建风险评价模型。方法 分别对流行病学因素、肠道病毒感染因素、免疫细胞因素、免疫球蛋白因素、皮质醇因素、细胞因子因素做多元线性回归分析，构建它们对于影响病情程度的相关性模型，并从中找到影响病情严重程度的主要相关性因素。最后根据综合评价的Delphi法，确定不同因素影响病情严重程度的权重值，并构建出影响病情严重程度的综合评价模型。结果 （危）重症患儿流行病学、肠道病毒71感染、β-内啡肽、免疫细胞、免疫球蛋白、皮质醇因素相关性强（其中相关系数R2接近1，对应的概率P < 0.05），具有较好的相关性，而细胞因子因素相关性弱（R2接近0，P > 0.05）。综合性评价模型：F=-0.1424-0.0014L1-0.0030L2-0.0167L4-0.0118L5+0.0252L6+0.1669EV71+0.0828β-EP+0.0113COR-0.0038CD16+56-0.0045CD4-0.0047CD8+0.0071CD19-0.0075CD3-0.0059CD4/CD8+0.0082IgM+0.0006IgG+0.0011IgA。结论 （危）重症患儿流行病学（年龄、性别、首诊医院类型、基础病、出生体重）、肠道病毒71感染、β-内啡肽、免疫细胞（CD3、CD4、CD8、CD19、CD16+56、CD4/CD8）、免疫球蛋白（IgM、IgG、IgA）、皮质醇（COR）因素相关性强，据此构建的综合评价模型有效率高。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective: To analyze the risk factors of severe hand foot and mouth disease and build a risk assessment model.Methods: A total of 443 children who met the diagnostic criteria of hand foot and mouth disease in Jiangxi children's hospital infection department from September 2016 to February 2017 were enrolled. There were 282 boys (63.66%) and 161 girls (36.34%), with an average age of 18 (1--148) months. The multivariate linear regression analysis of epidemiological factors, intestinal virus infection factors, immune cell factors, immunoglobulin factors, cortisol factors and cytokine factors was made to construct their correlation model for the degree of disease, and to find the main related factors that affect the severity of the disease. Finally, according to the Delphi method of comprehensive evaluation, the weight values of different factors affecting the severity of the disease were determined, and a comprehensive evaluation model was built to influence the severity of the disease.Results: The epidemiology of severe children, 71 infection of enterovirus, β-endorphin, immunoglobulin, immunoglobulin, cortisol were strongly correlated (the correlation coefficient R2 was close to 1, the corresponding probability P < 0.05), and the correlation of cytokines was weak (R2 was close to 0,P>0.05). Comprehensive evaluation model:F=4L1-0.0030L2-0.0167L4-0.0118L5+ 0.0252L6+0.16 69EV71+0.0828β-EP+0.0113COR-0.0038CD16+56-0.0045CD4-0.0047CD8+0.0071-0.1424-0.001CD19-0.0075CD3-0.0059CD4/CD8+0.0082IgM+0.0006IgG+0.0011IgA.Conclusion: The epidemiology of severe children (age, sex, first diagnosis hospital type, basic disease, birth weight), enterovirus 71 infection, β-endorphin (β-EP), immune cells (CD3, CD4, CD8, CD19, CD16+56, CD4/CD8), immunoglobulin (IgM, IgG, IgA), and cortisol (COR) are strongly correlated. The comprehensive evaluation model based on this model has high efficiency. |
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