| 乔美华.人口红利能缩小我国城乡收入差距吗?[J].井冈山大学社科版,2019,40(3):84-90 |
| 人口红利能缩小我国城乡收入差距吗? |
| Dynamic Impact on Urban-Rural Income Gap from Demographic Dividend in China |
| 投稿时间：2019-01-12 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1674-8107.2019.03.013 |
| 中文关键词: 人口红利 城乡收入 状态空间模型 |
| 英文关键词: demographic dividend urban-rural income state space model co-integration analysis |
| 基金项目:山东省社科规划项目“山东省工业转型升级水平测度与路径研究”（项目编号：16DJJJ08）；山东省高等学校人文社科研究项目“山东省人口结构与产业结构升级的耦合协调发展研究”（项目编号：R16WC0901）。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 通过收集中国1996-2016年人口红利和城乡收入差距的时间序列数据，基于时变参数状态空间模型，运用KALMAN滤波算法考察人口结构、人口资产匹配程度和人口素质对中国城乡收入差距随着时间变化的动态影响。研究发现：人口结构、人口资产匹配、人口素质与城乡收入差距间存在长期协整关系，人口资产匹配和人口结构对城乡收入差距的弹性系数数值较小，人口资产匹配效应并不是影响城乡收入差距的主要因素，弹性系数呈现两个阶段态势，前一阶段加剧城乡收入差距，后一阶段缩小城乡收入差距；人口结构与城乡收入差距负相关，随着人口总抚养比的下降，城乡收入差距加剧；人口素质对城乡收入差距的影响较大，人口素质对城乡收入差距的弹性系数均为正，表明人口素质的提高进一步加大了城乡收入差距。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In this paper, we sample the time series data of demographic dividend and urban-rural income gap from 1996 to 2016 in China. Based on the time varying parameter state space model, and using the KALMAN filtering algorithm, the dynamic impact of the urban-rural income gap with time and from the population structure, the matching degree of population assets and the population quality are explored. During the sampling period the study shows that there is a long-term co-integration relationship among the population structure, the matching degree of population assets, the population quality and the urban-rural income gap. Results reflect that the elastic coefficient of the matching degree of population assets and the population structure on urban-rural income gap is smaller. The matching degree of population assets is not the main factor affecting the urban-rural income gap. The elastic coefficient exhibits two trends, one increasing the urban-rural income gap while another narrowing the gap. The population structure is negatively correlated with urban-rural income gap, i.e., the urban-rural income gap increases with the decrease of the overall population dependency ratio. The population quality exerts a great influence on urban-rural income gap, and its elastic coefficient is positive, which shows that the improvement of population quality has further increased the urban-rural income gap. |
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