| 赵伟,尹礼汇.人口结构如何影响商品住房需求——基于省级面板数据的实证分析[J].井冈山大学社科版,2018,(2):87-93 |
| 人口结构如何影响商品住房需求——基于省级面板数据的实证分析 |
| How Commodity Housing is Influenced by Population Structure: An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data |
| 投稿时间：2017-12-16 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1674-8107.2018.02.014 |
| 中文关键词: 商品住房需求 人口结构 面板回归 |
| 英文关键词: commodity housing needs population structure panel regression |
| 基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“城市群效率测度及基于效率取向的中部地区城市群发展战略研究”。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 1998年城镇住房制度改革以来，我国的房地产市场不断发展壮大。房地产业已经成为国民经济的支柱行业。住房需求是每个人的基本需求，会受到人口因素的制约。通过从理论层面上探究人口年龄结构、人口社会结构和人口区域结构对商品住房需求的影响，并基于1998-2015年中国31个省级行政区的数据，运用面板回归模型，从实证的角度验证了理论分析。研究发现：老年抚养比和平均受教育年限与商品住房需求呈正相关，少儿抚养比和平均家庭户规模与商品住房需求呈负相关。政府的住房政策需适应人口结构的转变。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Since its urban housing system reform started in 1998, China witnessed an expansion of its real estate market and the growth of real estate industry as a pillar of its economy. Housing is a basic needs for every individual controlled by population structure. In this paper we theoretically explore the influences on commodity housing needs by the structures in age, social strata and regional distribution. Then we test our theoretical findings through panel regression model with the data of 31 provincial regions from 1998 through 2015. It is found that higher number of senior people to be supported in a family and higher years of average education result in increase of the needs, while the number of children to be supported and the average scale of family are negatively related to the needs. Hence the government's policies on housing should be adapted to the evolution of the country's population structure. |
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